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sa4utsa
New User
| Posts: 1
| Joined: 04/10
Posted: 04/11/10 07:56 AM
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Any statisticians out there? My family and I have two vehicles, a focus and a quest minivan. I have been unemployed for 6 months now and we tend only to drive out of necesity. Our necesities are greater than most because we have 4 kids and all but one needs periodical rides to one thing or the next. We average around 1000 miles driven each month with about a fifty-fifty split between the two cars and we don't visit construction sites and we live in a 30 year old neighborhood. Within the past month we have had some extreme bad luck. Our Quest has gotten 3 flats (2 nails,1 screw). All three with a different tire at seperate times. My question goes out to any mathmeticians or statisticians, what are the odds of this happening without foul play being involved? Thanks to those who reply.
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Posted: 04/11/10 09:49 AM
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time to invest in a low light camera... you can hook it to that old vcr you almost never use... stick in a few 6 hour tapes..
some camcorders have a time lapse setting...
if you have any PC's laying around.. those can be hacked into a digital recorder.. google it..
you could also.. put a something that dangles from your key ring or alarm button... that reminds you to walk around and check under the front and rear of the tires before you drive away...
there was one guy..... kept getting his tires slashed... set up a camera... it was a dog.. running ahead of his master.. biting the tires to snarl and attack at the air coming out..
is there any construction going on near you... or remodeling??? kids next door???
were the nails NEW... or used... were they the same... were they both driven into the same position of the tire.. did they both go in straight...
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Posted: 04/11/10 01:09 PM
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Just for fun, I did this a couple of years ago and came up with the following:
Assuming that a vehicle puts on 15K per year, and there is a 16% chance that a tire will have a puncture in its lifetime, and tires average 45K miles.
Then the odds of getting 3 punctures in a month on a given vehicle is 0.08% or 1 in 1250.
These always sounded a little too frequent for my taste - but that's what the math says.
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