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A friend purchased a used 2002 Toyota Sienna minivan a few months ago. It had 74,000 miles when he got it (most of it probably highway mileage). He had it inspected at a local Toyota dealer service shop and they gave it the okay and said the timing belt was "tight" which meant okay.

3 months later (the van now has 75,000 miles on it) he brought it back for routine maintenance and is told that upon "visual inspection"  that the timing belt be changed due to excessive wear. He also suggests a new water pump while they are at it.

Can a visual inspection of a timing belt detect this kind of problem, especially since 3 months earlier they said it was ok?.  The Toyota manual suggests changing the belt at 90,000 miles.  

Since it takes about an hour and a half to remove the 14 components necessary to actually see the timing belt, I'd say the dealer is taking your friend for a ride.

Also, tightness of the belt is controlled by the tensioner pulley - so judging a belt's wear by it's tightness is useless.

Use the better business bureau online website and find a local independant shop with a good reputation.